About this Episode
In this episode of Podcasty NBA, Niko and Stella explore the unprecedented possibility that all three top picks in the 2025 NBA Draft—the Dallas Mavericks (1st), San Antonio Spurs (2nd), and Philadelphia 76ers (3rd)—could be traded despite historically rare occurrences of such moves. They break down each team's unique situation including injuries, roster composition, competitive windows, and strategic motivations behind potentially flipping these prized selections. Drawing from insights shared by league executives and detailed analysis from Howard Beck's article on theringer.com dated May 15th, this conversation highlights how changing lottery odds and franchise priorities may lead to historic draft night decisions.
Article Discussed: "Will the 2025 NBA Draft Be Top-Heavy With Trades?"
Author: Howard Beck
https://www.theringer.com/2025/05/15/nba/nba-draft-2025-trade-rumors-mavericks-spurs-sixers
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Episode Transcript
Niko: Welcome back to Podcasty NBA! Today we've got a fascinating topic on the table — the 2025 NBA Draft and whether it could be unusually top-heavy with trades. The Mavericks, Spurs, and Sixers hold the top three picks, but there's a twist: despite their high draft positions, all three teams might be motivated to trade those picks. It's a scenario that has never happened before in NBA history.
Stella: That's right, Niko. The lottery results were surprising in themselves — Dallas snagged the number one pick despite just a 1.8 percent chance, followed by San Antonio at number two and Philadelphia at number three. But what's really intriguing is how these teams' unique situations could drive them to consider trading those valuable picks instead of keeping them. It's a rare moment worth unpacking.
Niko: Let's break down what actually happened leading up to this. The Mavericks made the Finals last season with Luka Doncic before trading him for Anthony Davis. They were still playoff contenders until Kyrie Irving suffered a knee injury in early March. Meanwhile, the Sixers had MVP Joel Embiid but faced health and chemistry issues that derailed their season. And the Spurs acquired De’Aaron Fox midseason but lost Victor Wembanyama to a blood clot, which shut down their young star.
Stella: Exactly, and all three teams ended up landing unexpectedly high draft positions thanks to the NBA's flatter lottery odds system adopted in 2019. Originally, Dallas was slated for 11th pick; San Antonio was eighth; Philadelphia was fifth. So this leap into the top three is unusual given these teams aren't your typical lottery squads.
Niko: Right, and an NBA executive even texted after the lottery saying it's 'not crazy' that all three might trade their picks — because none of these teams are rebuilding from scratch like typical lottery teams. Instead, they arguably need established veterans more than teenage prospects since rookies rarely contribute immediately at a high level.
Stella: Taking Philadelphia as an example: they tanked late in the season to secure that third pick, which they get to keep because it didn’t fall below sixth where it would have gone to Oklahoma City as part of a prior trade. With Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, and promising rookie Jared McCain already on board, they're positioned as potential Eastern Conference contenders—if Embiid can recover fully from his recent knee surgeries.
Niko: But if Philly doubts Embiid's long-term health or impact going forward, holding onto that third pick makes sense as they build for post-Embiid years with young talent like Bailey or Edgecombe. On the other hand, if they believe they're still title contenders now with Embiid leading the charge, they'd likely prefer trading that pick for proven players rather than rookies who might not help immediately.
Stella: Moving on to San Antonio at number two — they've got Wembanyama as their franchise cornerstone plus De’Aaron Fox and Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle already shaping a strong core. They’re aiming for playoffs next season but have depth in their backcourt making Dylan Harper—the projected second pick—somewhat redundant.
Niko: So for the Spurs it's about deciding how aggressively they want to build around Wemby: do they accelerate towards contention by trading down or dealing this pick for established stars? They also have plenty of draft assets which could help facilitate blockbuster trades potentially involving big names like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Kevin Durant if they choose to swing for it.
Stella: Then there’s Dallas with arguably the most urgent situation—two often-injured stars in Kyrie Irving at 33 and Anthony Davis at 32 mean their championship window is shrinking fast. Team president Nico Harrison’s controversial decision to trade Luka Doncic for Davis set expectations around contending within three or four years max.
Niko: 'Cooper Flagg,' their top prospect at 18 years old with great skills and defensive instincts, is seen by scouts as an immediate contributor but opinions vary on his ceiling—from superstar potential down to being 'very good' but not elite. So Dallas faces a tough call: bank on Flagg’s development or trade this pick for an established star who can help now?
Stella: "One idea floated is swapping Flagg's rights plus other assets for Giannis Antetokounmpo—a two-time MVP who's currently 30 years old—which would align better with Dallas’ short-term championship window than banking on an unproven teenager." There's also talk about targeting players like Trae Young or Ja Morant if Giannis isn't available.
Niko: "But given fans’ excitement over winning this top pick after years without such opportunities—and backlash over losing Doncic—it’s unclear if Harrison would dare move such a promising player so soon." Historically speaking though, trades involving number one picks are extremely rare; only five have occurred since the ABA-NBA merger.
Stella: "And trades involving any of the top-three picks are uncommon too—only eleven since 2000—with most occurring well before draft day itself as part of larger deals." Officially though: Sixers plan to keep their third pick; Mavericks reportedly won’t entertain trading number one; Spurs are said to be open-minded about dealing number two according to ESPN reports.
Niko: So while no team is tipping its hand publicly—and team officials sometimes don’t tell full truths—the possibility remains open that we could see one or even multiple top-three picks traded come draft night. It’s unprecedented but not outlandish given these wild times in the NBA landscape right now.
Stella: To sum up: The unique circumstances surrounding these three franchises—their unexpected lottery positions combined with different competitive windows—make this draft potentially historic not just for talent acquisition but also for trade activity at the very top of the board. Whether any deals happen remains uncertain but it’s definitely something everyone will be watching closely come June.
Niko: Absolutely! This episode really highlights how unpredictable and strategic NBA front offices can be when balancing present contention versus future potential — especially when history might be rewritten with multiple top-three trades possible simultaneously. Thanks so much for joining us today on Podcasty NBA! We’ll catch you next time where we dive deeper into basketball’s ever-evolving landscape.
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